Obama ups the ante in Southeast Asia

Fresh from his second term victory, US President Barack Obama flies to Southeast Asia to strengthen his country’s engagement with the region. This is seen as a pivotal move for the US that focused too much on Pakistan and Afghanistan and gained nothing more but anti-US sentiments from those countries. I wrote on this blog previously about what the US President’s second mandate mean to Asia this time. Immediately after Obama’s victory speech, the White House announced that he will visit Burma, Thailand and Cambodia at the end of November. 

Obama on his way to Bangkok. Photo by Jewel Samad/AFP

The choice of countries to visit in Southeast Asia has rubbed nationalist sentiments of some ASEAN countries, notably The Philippines, Viet Nam and Indonesia that have long been seen as allies but often side-swiped by the Obama administration. The President only visited Indonesia (where he spent some years as a child) once but was never followed up. News reports said the visit to Indonesia is lessened because of terrorist threats that still have to be contained.

On the other hand, the Philippines has always been sidestepped (even though at some points Obama was just around the vicinity of Southeast Asia) for reasons many Filipinos could not understand. The simple explanation is, while the Philippines is an ally of the US and very strategic in providing logistical support (e.g. US military bases to diffuse China’s military aggression), it is too easy to get the Philippines to its side. Most Philippine Presidents (except perhaps Ferdinand Marcos at the end of his reign and Joseph Estrada who was also toppled eventually) have the tendency to say yes to whatever the US wants without batting an eyelash. When the Philippines was engaged in a tit-for-tat with China over claims in the Spratly Group of Islands in the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea , the US began sending a few troops and hand-me-down navy ships to the Philippines to show support. But the US has played its card very well by not giving the full support the Philippines wanted because it knows that by doing so, it would only worsen its thorny relations with China.

The China factor is the main reason why Obama chose to visit Thailand, Burma and Cambodia, instead of Indonesia, Viet Nam and the Philippines. Burma needs to be swayed to the US side during the country’s crucial moment of opening up to the world. The military-controlled Burma, a country with more almost 60 million population and huge untapped natural resources, is seen as the new darling of investors, including of course, US oil companies. Due to its heavy handed military regime and blotchy humanitarian records, the US and EU put an embargo on Burmese products and businesses. China (as it always does) took this opportunity to become patron of the generals and gave Burma the needed funds and businesses in exchange for extraction of its natural resources (dam, oil) which is also being done in neighboring communist country Laos. This also extends to Cambodia whose longest running Prime Minister Hun Sen (who also happens to be the ASEAN chairman) is seen as a Chinese ally.

Last July, Hun Sen was blamed for hijacking the joint ASEAN communiqué on the issue of the maritime standoff between the Philippine and Chinese navies in the Spratlys. It is said that behind the decision not to issue a joint communiqué were the Chinese whose investments grow exponentially in Cambodia. In a recent development, during the ongoing ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia has again reiterated that "ASEAN will not internationalize the issue on South China Sea". Philippine President Benigno Aquino III publicly rebuked Cambodia for the statement saying there was no consensus reached among members and that ASEAN is not the only way for the Philippines to raise its objections on Chinese incursions on the contested South China Sea, on which many ASEAN countries have overlapping claims.

How about Thailand? The largely Buddhist country (along with Cambodia, Burma and Laos) is positioning as a leader in ASEAN if not among Mekong countries. It is seen as a neutral country that deals closely with most of its neighbors like Cambodia, Burma, Laos and Viet Nam. While it does rely on China for some of its businesses, it is explicitly not pro-China. More than 50 percent of its investments are still from the Japanese. It is also a strategic country to reach Cambodia or Laos or Burma with its international airports and land borders. (Besides, the best hotels for Obama to stay are still in Bangkok and security-wise it is not so much of a problem). Meeting Thailand’s venerable King Bhumibol Adulyadej while Obama is there makes more sense since it is the ultimate gesture that the US President respects authority and even if he is the President of a powerful country, he finds time to visit the King.

The recent Asian visit by the US president not only tells us that the US is ready to engage Southeast Asia but also a time to let China know that it is going where China think it is winning.